Drought Risk Assessment of Muzaffargarh District by Using Geospatial Techniques

Abstract

Drought is a major natural hazard characterized by extended periods of insufficient precipitation, posing serious threats to both ecosystems and human livelihoods.  This study evaluates drought risk in Muzaffargarh District, Pakistan, by combining geospatial techniques such as remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS).  Landsat ETM+ and OLI imagery from 2002, 2008, 2013, and 2018 were used to compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST).  The study found that LST increased from 38.77 °C in 2002 to 42.54 °C in 2018, while NDVI values decreased from 0.989 to 0.576. This inverse trend confirms declining vegetation cover and rising surface temperatures, which are important indicators of increasing meteorological and agricultural drought risk.  Regression analysis confirms a negative correlation between LST and NDVI (R² = 0.4167), indicating the region's vulnerability to climatic stress.  The supervised classification of LU/LC data reveals significant urban expansion and vegetation loss between 2002 and 2018.  The resulting drought risk maps identify increasingly dry zones, providing critical spatial insights for policymakers and stakeholders as they develop targeted and proactive drought mitigation plans.