Geospatial Vulnerability Assessment of Earthquake in District Mirpur Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan

Abstract

This study uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process to estimate the geographical earthquake vulnerability of District Mirpur in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Pakistan. Multiple 
environmental and physical markers, such as earthquake magnitude, depth, soil type, land use/land cover (LULC), elevation, proximity to fault lines, hospitals, roads, rivers, police stations, and educational institutions, were combined using a weighted overlay technique. Pairwise comparison matrices showed good consistency ratios (CR < 0.1), indicating the provided weights are reliable. The results show that earthquake magnitude (0.41) and earthquake depth (0.42) are the most influential environmental elements, whereas proximity to hospitals (0.27) and road networks (0.20) are the most important physical vulnerability criteria. The resulting seismic vulnerability map divides the research area into low, moderate, high, and extremely high vulnerability zones. Mirpur Tehsil was designated as the most dangerous location, with vital infrastructure such as Mirpur University of Science and Technology (MUST) and the Mangla Reservoir located in high-risk areas. The closeness of the Mangla Dam to active fault lines raises the possibility of secondary hazards such as dam outburst flooding. These findings highlight the importance of site-specific geotechnical research and targeted catastrophe risk mitigation initiatives. The created vulnerability maps are useful decision-support tools for urban planners, engineers, and disaster management authorities in improving earthquake preparedness and resilience in District Mirpur.